Elisa Varini

2023, Conference communications
A Bayesian approach to uncover temporal variations in seismicity
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
In this study we statistically analyze some earthquake sequences of Central Italy to identify possible temporal variations in the probability distributions of seismic parameters, such as magnitude and...
pp.tot 1 (The congress of the Italian Society of Applied and Industrial Mathematics - SIMAI, Matera, 28/08/2023-01/09/2023)
CNR@People

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2023, Conference proceedings
A Bayesian study of temporal changes in seismicity
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
The q-exponential distribution, solution of a maximum entropy problem in the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, is useful for describing complex, non-linear dynamic systems that emerge in ma...
Proceedings of the GRASPA 2023 Conference pp. 268-272, edited by Giada Adelfio, Antonino Abbruzzo., Università degli Studi di Palermo (GRASPA 2023 Conference, Palermo, 10-11/07/2023), 979-12-210-3389-2
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2023, Conference communications
Bayesian analysis of temporal changes in the probability distribution of seismic parameters and links with the seismic cycle
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
In the frame of nonextensive statistical mechanics, the q-exponential probability distribution arises from the maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constraints (Tsallis, J. Stat. Phys...
Book of Abstracts : 10th International Workshop on Applied Probability, IWAP 2023 pp. 164-164, edited by George Tsaklidis, Dimitris Kugiumtzis, Rodi Lykou. (10th International Workshop on Applied Probability IWAP 2023, Thessaloniki, Greece, 7-10/06/2023)
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2023, Meeting abstracts
Statistical analysis of declustered catalogues in Northeastern Italy
E. Varini, A. Peresan, and A. Benali
The spatiotemporal distribution of the background seismicity identified by different declustering methods is analysed in the case of Northeastern Italy. In particular, the performance of two decluster...
Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Book of abstracts - 41st National Conference pp. 501-502, edited by Rebez, Alessandro and Massolino, Giulia. (41° convegno GNGTS - Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Bologna, 7-9/2/2023)
CNR@People | DOI: 10.13120/2tf2-1j75

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2023, Conference posters
Theoretical analysis of the productivity of seismic events
E. Varini, G. Molchan, and A. Peresan
We investigate earthquake clustering, a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, in terms of distribution of the number of triggered events as described by a branching process (Kagan and Knopoff, Phys. ...
EGU General Assembly 2023 (EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts EGU23-1897) (EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24-28/04/2023)
CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1897

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2022, Meeting abstracts
Bayesian analysis of temporal variations of seismicity based on non-extensive statistical mechanics
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
In 1988, Tsallis introduced a non-additive entropy that has found applications in various fields such as physics, chemistry, medicine, informatics, linguistics, and economics. The concept also gained ...
Book of abstracts: 12th International Conference on Statistical Seismology (STATSEI 12) Cargèse, 17th to 21st of October 2022 (12th International Conference on Statistical Seismology - STATSEI 12, Cargèse, France, 17-21/10/2022)
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2022, Conference proceedings
Earthquake declustering in Central Italy
E.Varini and A. Peresan
Several techniques for earthquake clusters identification have been developed in the literature. They usually rely on different underlying assumptions and lead to different classifications of earthqua...
Proceedings of the Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 3ECEES - September 4-9, 2022, Bucharest pp. 4122-4130, edited by Cristian Arion, Alexandra Scupin, Alexandru ?ig?nescu. (Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology - 3ECEES, Bucharest, Romania, 04-09/09/2022), 978-973-100-533-1
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2022, Conference posters
Earthquake productivity within general ETAS models
E. Varini, G. Molchan, and A. Peresan
Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs. Several models have been proposed to describe the triggering mechanism of earthquakes; nonetheless, some theoretical aspects have not ...
Book of abstracts: 12th International Conference on Statistical Seismology (STATSEI 12) Cargèse, 17th to 21st of October 2022 pp.tot 2 (12th International Conference on Statistical Seismology - STATSEI 12, Cargèse, France, 17-21/10/2022)
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2022, Conference proceedings
Spatiotemporal analysis of catalogues declustered by different methods in Northeastern Italy region
A. Benali, A. Peresan, and E. Varini
The objective of this paper is to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of the background seismicity identified by Nearest Neighbour (NN) and Stochastic Declustering(SD) methods, in Northeastern Italy. ...
Proceedings of the Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 3ECEES - September 4-9, 2022, Bucharest pp. 3922-3929, edited by Cristian Arion, Alexandra Scupin, Alexandru Tiganescu. (Third European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology - 3ECEES, Bucharest, Romania, 04-09/09/2022), 978-973-100-533-1
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2022, Meeting abstracts
Temporal variations of seismicity from the application of Tsallis entropy
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, and G. Bressan
The concept has recently taken hold that Earth's crust behaves as a complex, non-linear dynamic system characterized by long-range correlations (Bowman et al., 2008, and references therein). In statis...
pp. 229-229, edited by Rebez, A. and Massolino, G.. (40° Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Trieste, 27-29/06/2022), 978-88-940442-9-4
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2021, Conference proceedings
A measure of criticality for a complex system in the context of non-extensive statistical mechanics
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Probability distributions with power-law behaviours are observed in many complex systems, reflecting hierarchical or fractal structures. Statistical mechanics provides descriptions of these systems, a...
Book of abstracts "Workshop on methods and applications of computational Uncertainty Quantification: experiences and perspectives within DIITET-CNR" pp. 68-70, edited by M. Diez, C. Leotardi C., A. Scagliarini, Tamellini L. and Tognola G.. (Workshop on methods and applications of computational Uncertainty Quantification: experiences and perspectives within DIITET-CNR (UQ@DIITET/CNR Workshop), Online workshop, 02/10/2020), 978-88-7617-050-8
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2021, Meeting abstracts
Declustering algorithms, background seismicity modeling and earthquake clusters analysis
E. Varini, A. Peresan, A. Benali
Declustering of seismic catalogs is required in wide range of earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard studies. However, different declustering methods may discriminate differently between background...
pp. 192-193 (37th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission (ESC 2021), virtual workshop, 19-24/09/2021)
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2021, Meeting abstracts
Markov modulated Poisson processes for stochastic modelling of background seismicity
E. Varini, A. Peresan and A. Benali
We investigate the statistical properties of declustered catalogs as obtained from the application of two different data-driven declustering algorithms, namely the nearest-neighbor method and the stoc...
pp.tot 1 (European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2021, online, 19-30/04/2021)
CNR@People | DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11036

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2021, Meeting abstracts
Markov modulated Poisson processes for stochastic modelling of background seismicity
E. Varini, A. Peresan and A. Benali
Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims at partitioning an earthquake catalo...
Proceedings of the GRASPA 2021 Conference Rome, 07-09 June 2021 pp. 93-93, edited by Giovanna Jona Lasinio and Francesco Lagona. (GRASPA-TIES European 2021 Workshop, Roma, online, 07-09/06/2021), 979-12-200-8496-3
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2021, Meeting abstracts
MMPP Models of Background Seismicity: A Comparative Analysis for Different Declustering Algorithms
E. Varini, A. Peresan. A. Benali
Declustering a seismic catalog is a relevant preliminary step in many applications, such as earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment. Declustering aims partitioning an earthquake catalog i...
pp. 1323-1323 (92) (2021 Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America, online, 19-23/04/2021)
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2020, Conference proceedings
Bayesian stochastic modelling of the temporal evolutionof seismicity
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
Seismic hazard assessment is based on the research achievements developed in a lively multidisciplinary context involving seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists as well as computer scientists, m...
Book of Short Papers SIS 2020 pp. 317-321, edited by A. Pollice, N. Salvati, F.S. Spagnolo., Pearson (50th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Pisa, 22-24/06/2020), 9788891910776
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2020, Conference proceedings
Probabilistic damage scenarios from uncertain macroseismic data
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
Nowaday, macroseismic data are still essential for the seismic hazard assessment in several regions because they provide important knowledge on preinstrumental earthquakes, nedeed to compile historica...
pp.tot 1 (EGU2020: Sharing Geoscience Online, Vienna, 04-08/05/2020)
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2020, Conference proceedings
Variations in the temporal evolution of seismicity pointed out by non-extensive statistical physics approach
R. Rotondi, E. Varini
Physics-based models focus on the generation process of individual earthquakes butthe strong space-time interaction existing among the events of seismic sequences requires that the seismic activity be...
pp.tot 2 (EGU2020: Sharing Geoscience Online, Vienna, 04-08/05/2020)
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2019, Conference posters
Anisotropic attenuation of the macroseismic intensity
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Aim of this study is to forecast the spatial distribution of the damages caused by an earthquake in the area surrounding its epicentre. The macroseismic intensity Is at a site is a direct measure of t...
(GRASPA 2019 Biennial conference of the Italian research group for Environmental Statistics GRASPA-SIS, Pescara (I), 15/07/2019, 15-16/07/2019)
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2019, Conference proceedings
Anisotropic attenuation of the macroseismic intensity
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Macroseismic intensity is a measure of the size of an earthquake in terms of the damages caused to the anthropic and natural environment; it is an ordinal quantity expressed through the twelve degrees...
GRASPA19 - Proceedings of the GRASPA 2019 Conference. Pescara (IT), 15-16 July 2019 pp. 117-118 (GRASPA Working Papers), edited by Michela Cameletti, Luigi Ippoliti, Alessio Pollice. (GRASPA 2019 Biennial conference of the Italian research group for Environmental Statistics GRASPA-SIS, Pescara (I), 15/07/2019, 15-16/07/2019), 978-88-97413-34-9
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2019, Conference proceedings
Another step in the path from macroseismic fields to probabilistic modeling of attenuation
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
It is beyond doubt that information provided by historical seismology can provide a valuable aid to understanding the evolution of the seismic phenomenon; we cannot therefore renounce to analyze macro...
pp.tot 2 (38° convegno nazionale del GNGTS, Roma, 12-14/11/2019)
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2019, Conference proceedings
Capturing the complexity of earthquake sequences by different methods
A. Peresan, E. Varini and J. Zhuang
Earthquake clustering is an essential property of seismicity and the space-time patterns of the identified seismicclusters may provide important information about the structural and dynamic features o...
pp.tot 1 (21) (EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, 7-12/04/2019)
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2019, Meeting abstracts
Declustering algorithms and network theory for the topological inspection of earthquake sequences
E. Varini, A. Peresan A, and J. Zhuang
The complexity of earthquake sequences is investigated by two declustering methods: the "nearest-neighbor" method (NN), which is based on nearest-neighbor distances between events in space-t...
pp. 97-97 (11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11), Hakone, Japan, 18-21/08/2019)
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2019, Conference proceedings
Earthquake clustering and centrality measures
E. Varini, A. Peresan, and J. Zhuang
Earthquake clustering is a relevant feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature in order to ch...
pp. 458-461, Università di Cassino (Cladag 2019 (12-th Scientific Meeting Classification and Data Analysis Group), Cassino, 11-13/09/2019), 978-88-8317-108-6
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2019, Conference proceedings
On the examination of a criticality measure for a complex system in a forecasting perspective
Rotondi R. and Varini E.
Many complex phenomena concerning extreme events causing natural disasters exhibit power-law behavior, reflecting a hierarchical or fractal structure. These phenomena seem to be susceptible to descrip...
Book of Short Papers SIS2019 pp. 493-500 (Book of Short Papers SIS2019), edited by Giuseppe Arbia et al.., Pearson (Smart Statistics for Smart Applications, Milano, 18-21 giugno 2019), 9788891915108
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2019, Conference proceedings
Selection and weighing of ground motion prediction equations for the new seismic hazard model of Italy (MPS19)
V. D'Amico, L. Luzi, G. Lanzano, F. Pacor, R. Puglia, W. Marzocchi, C. Meletti, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
In the framework of the project for the update of the national seismic hazard model (MPS19), a task was devotedto selecting and weighing the predictive equations for the ground motion parameters and t...
EGU General Assembly 2019 (Geophysical research abstracts) (EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, 7-12/04/2019)
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2019, Conference proceedings
Spatio-temporal earthquake clustering: insights and outlooks from Network Analysis
E. Varini, A. Peresan, and J. Zhuang
The seismic history of a region is characterized by its earthquake clusters, namely periods when the occurrence rate of earthquakes is higher than usual. Clustering in space and time is an essential k...
Proceedings of the GRASPA 2019 Conference, Pescara, 15-16 July 2019 pp. 47-48 (GRASPA Working Papers), edited by Michela Cameletti, Luigi Ippoliti, Alessio Pollice. (GRASPA 2019 Biennial conference of the Italian research group for Environmental Statistics GRASPA-SIS, Pescara, 15-16/07/2019), 978-88-97413-34-9
CNR@People | DOI: 10.6092/GRASPA19

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2018, Conference proceedings
A measure of the criticality of a seismogenic system from the viewpoint of statistical physics
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Despite the extreme complexity that characterizes the mechanism of the earthquake generation process, some phenomenological features seem to be identifiable in the collective properties of seismicity....
37° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 363-364 (37° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Bologna, 19-21/11/2018)
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2018, Conference proceedings
A new proposal for stochastic modeling of earthquake occurrence through a compound model
R. Rotondi, E. Varini
Earthquakes are natural phenomena that affect multiple time-space scales and of which we only have indirect measurements strongly affected by uncertainty. These phenomena may be investigated on differ...
Book of Abstracts of the 36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission pp. 262-263, edited by D'Amico S., Galea P., Bozionelos G., Colica E., Farrugia D., Agius M.R.. (36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Valletta, Malta, 2-7/9/2018), 978-88-98161-12-6
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2018, Conference proceedings
Clustering macroseismic fields by statistical data depth functions
C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
The macroseismic intensity is an ordinal variable that describes the seismic damage effects of an earthquake. The collection of intensity values recorded at sites of an area hit by an earthquake is ca...
Classification, (Big) Data Analysis and Statistical Learning pp. 145-153 (Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization), edited by Mola F., Conversano C., Vichi M.., Springer (CLADAG 2015, the 10th Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group, Santa Margherita di Pula, Cagliari, ottobre 2015), 978-3-319-55707-6
CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-55708-3_16

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2018, Conference proceedings
Comparison of two clustering algorithms for the characterization of earthquake clusters
E. Varini, A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, S. Gentili
Earthquake clusters are prominent in the spatio-temporal distribution of any seismic catalog; they commonly show different patterns and complexities that are deemed to be strictly inherent to the phys...
37° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 309-312 (37° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Bologna, 19-21/11/2018), 978-88-943717-0-3
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2018, Meeting abstracts
Investigating the spatial features of earthquake clusters: insights from different methods
A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and S. Gentili
Earthquake clustering is a fundamental aspect of seismicity, with typical features in space, time, and energy domains that may provide key information about earthquake dynamics and about the physical ...
EGU General Assembly 2018 pp.tot 1 (20, EGU2018-15959-1) (EGU General Assembly 2018, Vienna, 8-13/04/2018)
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2018, Conference proceedings
Seismic scenarios and hazard assessment in the island of Ischia (Neapolitan volcanic district, Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic intensity data
R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini
On August 21, 2017, a Md 4.0 earthquake struck the volcanic island of Ischia (Gulf of Naples, Italy), producing heavy damage and two casualties at Casamicciola (Azzaro et al., 2017), locality known fo...
Book of Abstracts of the 36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission pp. 228-229, edited by D'Amico S., Galea P., Bozionelos G., Colica E., Farrugia D., Agius M.R.. (36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Valletta, Malta, 2-7/9/2018), 978-88-98161-12-6
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2018, Conference proceedings
Space-time earthquake clustering: nearest-neighbor and stochastic declustering methods in comparison
E. Varini, A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, and S. Gentili
Earthquakes do not occur randomly in space and time; rather, they tend to group into clusters that can be classified according to their different properties, presumably related to the specific geophys...
Book of Short Papers SIS 2018 pp.tot 8, edited by Antonino Abbruzzo et al.., Pearson (SIS2018: 49th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society, Palermo, 2018, June 20-22), 978-88-91910-23-3
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2018, Conference proceedings
Spatial features of earthquake clusters investigated by different approaches
A. Peresan, E. Varini, S. Gentili, R. Rotondi
Earthquake clustering is a prominent feature of seismic catalogs, both in time and space. Several methodologies for earthquake cluster identification have been proposed in the literature with at least...
Book of Abstracts of the 36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission pp. 371-372, edited by D'Amico S., Galea P., Bozionelos G., Colica E., Farrugia D., Agius M.R.. (36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Valletta, Malta, 2-7/9/2018), 978-88-98161-12-6
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2018, Conference proceedings
The attenuation of macroseismic intensity in Italy: A probabilistic approach to seismic scenarios and hazard assessment
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
A new Italian seismic hazard map is going to be developed in the framework of an agreement between the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Department of Civil Prote...
Book of Abstracts of the 36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission pp. 233-234, edited by D'Amico S., Galea P., Bozionelos G., Colica E., Farrugia D., Agius M.R.. (36th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Valletta, Malta, 2-7/09/2018), 978-88-98161-12-6
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2017, Meeting abstracts
A comparative analysis of methods for identification and characterization of earthquake clusters
R. Rotondi, A. Peresan, S. Gentili, and E. Varini
Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust with...
TIES-GRASPA 2017 Conference pp. 114-114, edited by Michela Cameletti and Francesco Finazzi. (The 27th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society joint with Biennial GRASPA Conference, Bergamo, 24-26/07/2017)
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2017, Meeting abstracts
A failure process driven by a self-correcting model
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
N/A
10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology. Programme and Abstracts (GNS Sci. misc. ser.), edited by Kelly K., Christophersen A., Rhoades D.A., Gerstenberger M.C., Wang T., Harte D.S., and Hammond K.A.T.. (10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Wellington, New Zealand, 20-24/02/2017), 978-1-98-850062-1
CNR@People | DOI: 10.21420/G23S33

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2017, Conference communications
Bayesian inference and predictive accuracy of failure models driven by a self-correcting point process for long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
The process by which earthquakes are generated is still unknown. Its understanding is aimed at reducing and managing the seismic risk as well as at being a challenging research field. The fragmentary ...
pp.tot 1 (61th World Statistics Congress (ISI2017), Marrakech, Morocco, 16-21/07/2017)
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2017, Meeting abstracts
Combining failure and self-correcting processes in seismic risk analysis
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Two widely known features of the earthquake generation process are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred to as swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks act...
pp. 3-4 (5th Workshop on games and decisions in risk and reliability - GDRR 2017, Madrid, Spain, 07-09/06/2017)
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2017, Meeting abstracts
Failure processes driven by a selfcorrecting model. Application to earthquake sequences.
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
Earthquake occurrence is usually modelled by point processes. The longterm recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by Poisson process or self-correcting point processes with nondecreasing ...
pp. 4-4 (10th International workshop on Bayesian inference in stochastic processes, Milano, 13-16/06/2017)
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2017, Conference proceedings
Identification of earthquake clusters through a new space-time-magnitude metric
R. Rotondi, A. Peresan, S. Gentili, and E. Varini
We consider a metric that exploits the statistical properties of seismicity to quantify the correlation between earthquakes in a given catalogue. The method is based on nearest-neighbour distance betw...
CLADAG 2017 Book of short papers pp.tot 6, edited by F. Greselin, F. Mola, and M. Zenga., Universitas Studiorum S.r.l. (International Conference of The CLAssification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS), Milano, 13-15/09/2017), 978-88-99459-71-0
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2017, Conference proceedings
Investigating features of earthquake clustering: a comparative analysis for selected sequences In Italy
A. Peresan, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and S. Gentili
A number of studies aimed at seismic hazard assessment, as well as at the space-time analysis of earthquakes occurrence (e.g. Gentili et al., 2017), require preliminary declustering of the earthquake ...
36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 294-296, edited by D. Slejko, A. Riggio, D. Albarello, F. Bianco, N. Creati, D. Di Bucci, M. Dolce, E. Eva, G. Florio, P. Galli, M. Giustiniani, G. Lavecchia, P. Marianelli, L. Martelli, P. Mazzucchelli, G. Naso, F. Pacor, E. Rizzo, L. Sambuelli, G. Valensise., Regione Emilia Romagna (36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Trieste, 14-16/11/2017), 978-88-940442-8-7
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2017, Conference proceedings
L'attenuazione dell'intensità macrosismica nell'isola vulcanica di Ischia: confronto tra modelli deterministici e probabilistici e applicazione per la generazione di scenari di danno
R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
In questo lavoro vengono discusse le problematiche relative all'attenuazione dell'intensità macrosismica per l'area vulcanica di Ischia, che il recente evento del 21 agosto ha messo drammaticam...
36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 220-222, edited by D. Slejko, A. Riggio, D. Albarello, F. Bianco, N. Creati, D. Di Bucci, M. Dolce, E. Eva, G. Florio, P. Galli, M. Giustiniani, G. Lavecchia, P. Marianelli, L. Martelli, P. Mazzucchelli, G. Naso, F. Pacor, E. Rizzo, L. Sambuelli, G. Valensise., Regione Emilia Romagna (36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Trieste, 14-16/11/2017), 978-88-940442-8-7
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2017, Conference proceedings
On a failure process driven by a self-correcting model in seismic hazard assessment
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Two widely noted features of earthquake generation process are the following: a) earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, and b) fault ruptures that generate earthquakes decrease the amount of strain pr...
SIS 2017 Statistics and Data Science: new challenges, new generations pp. 879-886, edited by A. Petrucci and R. Verde., Firenze University Press (SIS 2017 Statistics and Data Science: new challenges, new generations, Firenze, Italia, 28-30/06/2017), 978-88-6453-521-0
CNR@People | DOI: 10.36253/978-88-6453-521-0

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2017, Conference proceedings
Selection and ranking of the ground motion prediction equations for the new Italian hazard map (MPS16)
G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and W. Marzocchi
The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006 (Stucchi et al., 2011). As known, ground-motion prediction equations (...
36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 282-285, edited by D. Slejko, A. Riggio, D. Albarello, F. Bianco, N. Creati, D. Di Bucci, M. Dolce, E. Eva, G. Florio, P. Galli, M. Giustiniani, G. Lavecchia, P. Marianelli, L. Martelli, P. Mazzucchelli, G. Naso, F. Pacor, E. Rizzo, L. Sambuelli, G. Valensise., Regione Emilia Romagna (36° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Trieste, 14-16/11/2017), 978-88-940442-8-7
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2016, Meeting abstracts
A new statistical time-dependent model of earthquake occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting model
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...
EGU General Assembly 2016 pp.tot 1 (18, EGU2016-8194) (EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna (Austria), 2016, April 17-22)
CNR@People | Link

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2016, Conference proceedings
Clustering macroseismic fields by statistical data depth functions
C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related tothe effects produced by an earthquake on humans, buil...
pp. 275-280, CUEC Editrice (CLADAG 2015 - 10° Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society, Santa Margherita di Pula, Italia, 8-10 ottobre 2015), 978-88-8467-949-9
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2016, Conference posters
On failure processes driven by a self-correcting model. Application to sequences of seismic events
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing...
ISBA 2016. Book of abstracts pp. 401-402, edited by S. Cabras and M. Guindani. (International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) 2016 World Meeting, Santa Margherita di Pula, Italy, 2016, June 13 -17)
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2016, Meeting abstracts
On the predictive information criteria for model determination in seismic hazard analysis
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
Many statistical tools have been developed for evaluating, understanding, and comparing models, from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. In particular, the problem of model selection can be ad...
EGU General Assembly 2016 pp.tot 1 (18, EGU2016-6801) (EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna (Austria), 2016, April 17-22)
CNR@People | Link

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2016, Meeting abstracts
Ranking ground-motion prediction models in different seismotectonic contexts: the experience for the new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS16)
G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, F. Pacor, R. Puglia, V. D'Amico, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
The MPS16 project, started in 2015, aims at updating the existing reference seismic hazard model for Italy, released in 2004-2006. As known, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) play a basic role...
pp.tot 1 (35th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission (ESC2016), Trieste, 04-10/09/2016)
CNR@People

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2015, Conference proceedings
Applying the disruption index procedure to evaluate the urban seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy)
G. Zonno, R. Azzaro, F. Meroni, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, M. A. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sá, C. S. Oliveira, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which...
Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, volume 5, Urban Geology, Sustainable Planning and Landscape Exploitation pp. 371-374 (Engineering Geology for Society and Territory), edited by G. Lollino, A. Manconi, F. Guzzetti, M. Culshaw, P. Bobrowsky, F. Luino., Springer (International IAEG XII Congress, Torino, 15-19/09/2014), 978-3-319-09047-4
CNR@People | DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09048-1_71

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2015, Conference posters
On the convolution of stochastic processes for modelling strong earthquake occurrences: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
Two widely noted features of earthquake generation are the following:- earthquakes tend to occur in clusters, sometimes, but not only, referred as "swarms", "foreshocks activity" a...
(9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Potsdam, Germany, 14-19/06/2015)
CNR@People | Link

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2015, Meeting abstracts
Statistical data depth for clustering macroseismic fields
C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
The size of historical earthquakes is given by the macroseismic intensity, an ordinal variable expressed by different scales and closely related to the effects produced by an earthquake on humans, bui...
pp.tot 1 (The 2015 conference of the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), Bologna, 6-8/7/2015)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference posters
A state-space model for the analysis of seismic swarms.
E. Varini and Y. Ogata
N/A
(DAMES 2014 - The 4th International Conference on Data Analysis and Modeling in Earth Sciences, Milano, Italy, 2014/10/06-08)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference proceedings
Macroseismic attenuation from probabilistic perspective in European countries
R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla
N/A
Proceedings of Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (2ECEES) pp. 33-35, edited by M. Atilla Ansal, Murat Nurlu (Chairmen of the conference). (Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul (Turchia), 24-29 agosto 2014)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference proceedings
On assessing importance of components in dysfunction urban systems given an earthquake: the case of Mt Etna region
G. Zonno, F. Meroni, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, R. Azzaro, C.S. Oliveira, M.A. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sà, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
N/A
Proceedings of Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (2ECEES) pp. 75-77, edited by M. Atilla Ansal, Murat Nurlu (Chairmen of the conference). (Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul (Turchia), 24-29 agosto 2014)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference communications
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis from local macroseismic history: a new implementation of the SASHA code
D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno
N/A
(33° convegno GNGTS - Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Bologna, 2014, November 25-27)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference proceedings
Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from local seismic history - A tool for risk assessment in urban areas
D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno
N/A
Proceedings of 2ECEES pp. 1048-1048, edited by M. Atilla Ansal, Murat Nurlu (Chairmen of the conference). (Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul (Turchia), 24-29 agosto 2014)
CNR@People

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2014, Conference proceedings
Statistical modelling for identification of earthquake clusters
E. Varini and Y. Ogata
N/A
Proceedings of 2ECEES pp. 1255-1255, edited by M. Atilla Ansal, Murat Nurlu (Chairmen of the conference). (Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul (Turchia), 2014/08/24-29)
CNR@People | Link

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2014, Conference communications
The Gompertz waiting time distributions of the stress release model in the bayesian framework.
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
N/A
(DAMES 2014 - The 4th International Conference on Data Analysis and Modeling in Earth Sciences, Milano, Italy, 2014/10/06-08)
CNR@People | Link

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2014, Conference proceedings
UPSTRAT-MAFA European project - Developments and achievements
G. Zonno, R. Rotondi, C.S. Oliveira, A. Carvalho, M. Garcia-Fernandez, R. Sigbjörnsson, and Working Group of UPStrat-MAFA project
N/A
pp. 31-32, edited by M. Atilla Ansal, Murat Nurlu (Chairmen of the conference). (Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Istanbul (Turchia), 24-29 agosto 2014)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference proceedings
A beta-binomial model for macroseismic attenuation. Case studies in European countries
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and FAult Sources. pp. 13-14 (4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, Italy, 2013, December 11-14)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference communications
Application of simulated data.
G. Zonno, E. Varini, and A. Carvalho
N/A
(3th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Selfoss, Iceland, 2013/07/23-26)
CNR@People

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2013, Meeting abstracts
Generalized probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in terms of macroseismic intensity as a tool for risk assessment in urban areas.
D. Albarello, V. D'Amico, R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and Zonno G.
N/A
pp.tot 1 (EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria), 2013, April 7-12)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference proceedings
Modelling the occurrence of strong earthquakes through the superposition of two stochastic processes: a multi-rupture model driven by a self-correcting model.
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
N/A
Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione (S.Co.2013) pp.tot 4, Poliscript (Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione (S.Co.2013), Milano, 2013, September 9-11), 9788864930190
CNR@People

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2013, Conference proceedings
On the macroseismic attenuation from the probabilistic perspective.
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and FAult Sources. pp. 11-12 (4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, Italy, 2013, December 11-14)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference posters
On the macroseismic attenuation from the probabilistic perspective. Applications in European countries.
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology pp. 75-76 (The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Beijing, China, 2013, August 11-13)
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2013, Meeting abstracts
On the stress release models with new tips from geophysics: Bayesian estimation, forecasting and validation.
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
N/A
The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology pp. 43-44 (The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Beijing, China, 2013, August 11-13)
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2013, Conference communications
Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data: modelling.
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
(3th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Selfoss, Iceland, 2013/07/23-26)
CNR@People | Link

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2013, Conference communications
Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data: results.
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
(3th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Selfoss, Iceland, 2013/07/23-26)
CNR@People | Link

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2013, Meeting abstracts
Self-correcting models driven by seismic strain, moment or energy. Applications to the Italian seismicity.
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
N/A
10th EGU General Assembly pp.tot 1 (Geophysical research abstracts) (EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria), 2013, April 7-12)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference proceedings
The disruption index evaluation in the urban Mt. Etna area (Italy).
F. Meroni, R. Azzaro, S. D'Amico, T. Tuvè, G. Zonno, A.F. Ferreira, F. Mota de Sà, C.S. Oliveira, C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi, and E. Varini
N/A
4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and FAult Sources. pp. 41-42 (4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, Italy, 2013, December 11-14)
CNR@People

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2013, Conference proceedings
Validation of macroseismic scenarios from a beta-binomial model.
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, and E. Varini
N/A
4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using Macroseismic Fields and FAult Sources. pp. 15-16 (4th General Meeting UPStrat-MAFA, Catania, Italy, 2013, December 11-14)
CNR@People

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2012, Meeting abstracts
A self-correcting stochastic model of earthquake occurrence enhanced by geologic fault data
R. Rotondi, E. Varini, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
N/A
Book of abstracts - The 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission pp. 370-371 (The 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, 2012, August 19-24)
CNR@People | Link

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2012, Conference communications
A self-correcting stochastic model of earthquake occurrence enhanced by geological fault data
R. Rotondi, E. Varini, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
We analyse sequences of earthquakes of Mw >= 5.3 drawn from the Parametric Catalog of Italian Earthquakes CPTI04 and associated with the composite seismogenic sources of the Database of Individual S...
(European Seismological Commission - 33rd General Assembly, Moscow, Russia, August 19-24, 2012)
CNR@People

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2012, Conference communications
Estimation of macroseismic scenarios in European countries
R. Rotondi, R. Sigbjörnsson, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla
This study is being carried out in the framework of the EU research project "Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (Grant Agreement n. 230301/2011...
(European Seismological Commission - 33rd General Assembly, Moscow, August 19-24, 2012)
CNR@People | Link

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2012, Meeting abstracts
Estimation of macroseismic scenarios in European countries.
R. Rotondi, R. Sigbjornsson, E. Varini, and C. Brambilla
N/A
Book of abstracts - The 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission. pp. 363-363 (The 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, 2012, August 19-24)
CNR@People | Link

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2012, Conference proceedings
Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic fields: Iceland case study
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, and R. Sigbjörnsson
In this work our objectives are, first, to describe a probabilistic model aimed at forecasting macroseismic fieldsand, second, to present the results and findings obtained by applying the model to two...
Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE) pp.tot 8 (15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE), Lisboa, Portugal, 2012, September 24-28)
CNR@People

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2012, Conference proceedings
Self-correcting models with different measures of the earthquake strength
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
N/A
Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Atti del 31° Convegno Nazionale, Tema 2: Caratterizzaione sismica del territorio pp. 388-395, Mosetti Tecniche Grafiche (31° Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Potenza, 2012, November 20-22), 978-88-902101-2-9
CNR@People

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2012, Conference proceedings
Urban disaster-prevention strategies using macroseismic fields and fault sources
G. Zonno, R. Azzaro, F. Bianco, P. Cusano, S. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, S. Falsaperla, D. Galluzzo, H. Langer, F. Meroni, G. Musacchio, R. Nave, F. Sansivero, L. Scarfi, R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, C.S. Oliveira, M.A. Ferreira, M. Lopes, F. Mota de Sá, J.C. Nunes, A. Carvalho, M.L. Sousa, S. Raposo, M. Garcia-Fernandez, A. Beltran, J. Jenni, M.J. Jimenez, R. Sigbjörnsson, A.E. Bernhardsdottir, S. Olafsson, R. Rupakhety, S.U. Sigurdsson, S. Thorvaldsdottir, and D. Albarello
This contribution presents the general framework of the European project UPStrat-MAFA "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" and its ongoing activ...
Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE) pp.tot 9 (The 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE), Lisboa, Portugal, 2012, September 24-28)
CNR@People

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2011, Conference proceedings
Clustering and classification in hazard evaluation
R. Rotondi, E. Varini, and G. Zonno
This study is aimed at characterising the attenuation of earthquakes in Italy by exploiting the information provided by the macroseismic fields of the DBMI04 database. The analysis was carried out for...
Book of Abstracts of 8th Scientific Meeting of the CLAssification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society - CLADAG pp.tot 4, Pavia University Press (The 8th International Meeting of the CLAssification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, Pavia, 2011, September 7-9), 978-88-96764-22-0
CNR@People

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2011, Conference proceedings
Is space-time interaction real or apparent in seismic activity?
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
N/A
Spatial2. Spatial Data Methods for Environmental and Ecological Processes - 2nd Edition pp. 229-232, edited by Cafarelli B., CDP Service (Spatial2 Conference: Spatial Data Methods for Environmental and Ecological Processes., Foggia - Baia delle Zagare, 2011, September 1-2), 978-88-96025-12-3
CNR@People

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2011, Meeting abstracts
Statistical tests for the retrospective detection of space-time clusters of seismic events.
E. Varini and R. Rotondi
N/A
EGU General Assembly 2011 pp.tot 1 (Geophysical research abstracts) (European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2011, Vienna, 2011/04/03-08)
CNR@People

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2010, Meeting abstracts
Occurrence Probability in Seismogenic Areas of DISS3.0.2 by Renewal Process: Importance of the Consistency between Model Assumptions and Input Data
R. Rotondi, S. Barba, R. Basili, E. Varini, and B. Betrò
In a previous project the long-term occurrence probability within various time intervals for the seismogenic areas of DISS3.0.2 was estimated on the basis of a nonparametric estimation of the density ...
(Final meeting of the Seismological Projects DPC-INGV, Agreement 2007-2009, Roma, 30/06/2010-02/07/2010)
CNR@People

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2010, Conference proceedings
Seismic hazard assessment by slip, strain and moment-based self-correcting models
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, B. Betrò, S. Barba, and R. Basili
N/A
GNGTS - 29° Convegno Nazionale. Riassunti estesi delle comunicazioni. pp. 198-201, edited by Slejko D, Riggio A., Stella Arti Grafiche (29° Convegno GNGTS - Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Prato, Italy, 2010/10/26-28), 978-88-902101-5-0
CNR@People

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2010, Meeting abstracts
Statistical significance of earthquake space-time clustering: Italy case
R. Rotondi and E. Varini
N/A
pp. 207-208 (29-esimo Convegno Nazionale Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Prato (I), 26-28 ottobre 2010)
CNR@People

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2009, Conference communications
Bayesian analysis of a state-space model with a nonstationary state process
Varini E., Rotondi R.
N/A
(Sixth Worshop on Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes)
CNR@People

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2009, Conference communications
Bayesian estimation of the conditional intensity function in self-correcting point processes applied to the seismic activity of Italian tectonic regions
Rotondi R., Varini E.
N/A
(The 20th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society (TIES), section of International Statistical Institute, and GRASPA Conference)
CNR@People

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2009, Conference proceedings
Bayesian inference of a doubly stochastic Poisson process with a non-stationary state process
Rotondi R., Varini E.
A doubly stochastic Poisson process is proposed in order to study seismic sequences. It is a state-space model where the state process jumps among three possible states, each of them characterised by ...
pp.tot 6, Maggioli Editore (S.Co.2009 - Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods for Estimation and Prediction, Milano, 14-16/09/2009), 8838743851
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2009, Conference proceedings
Multi-step analysis of seismic hazard through point processes
Varini E., Rotondi R.
In this article the seismic hazard assessment is the final goal of a multi-step procedure in which the reliability of the final result depends strongly on the answers given to the intermediate issues....
pp.tot 6, Maggioli Editore (S.Co.2009 - Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods for Estimation and Prediction, Milano, 14-16/09/2009), 8838743851
CNR@People

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2009, Conference proceedings
Self-correcting models for seismic hazard assessment in comparison
Varini E., Rotondi R., Betrò B., Barba S., Basili R.
The historical seismic data are suitably modelled by the self-correcting point processes whose conditional intensity functions give the instantaneous occurrence probability of at least one event. Thes...
Atti del 28-esimo Convegno Nazionale Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS) pp. 414-416, Stella Arti Grafiche (28-esimo Convegno Nazionale Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Trieste, 16-19/11/2009), 88-902101-4-1
CNR@People

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2009, Meeting abstracts
Time-dependent seismic hazard assessment through a self-correcting point process for the slip
Varini E., Rotondi R.
N/A
(11) (General Assembly of European Geosciences Union 2009, Vienna, 19-24/04/2009)
CNR@People

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2008, Conference proceedings
A HMM involving stress release and Etas models
Varini E., Rotondi R.
N/A
(31st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Hersonissos, Greece)
CNR@People

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2008, Conference proceedings
Examples of How the Stochastic Modelling Helps in Understanding the Earthquake Dynamics
Rotondi R., Varini E.
N/A
(International Workshop on Applied Probability (IWAP), Compiégne, France)
CNR@People

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2008, Conference proceedings
Filtering and inference of a doubly stochastic Poisson process
Varini E., Chopin N., Rotondi R.
N/A
(Workshop on Spatio-Temporal Series, Naha, Japan)
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2008, Conference communications
Stochastic analysis of natural hazards
B. Betrò (oratore), A. Bodini , C. Brambilla, R. Rotondi E. Varini
N/A
(IX Convegno SIMAI, Roma)
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2007, Conference communications
Likelihood inference for continuous-time hidden Markov models.
Chopin Nicolas, Varini E.
N/A
(Fifth Workshop on Bayesian Inference in Stochastic Processes, Valencia (Spagna))
CNR@People

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2007, Conference proceedings
Likelihood inference for continuous-time state-space models
Chopin N., Varini E.
In questo lavoro consideriamo un processo di Poisson doppiamente stocastico, che può essere interpretato come un modello stato-spazio non lineare a tempo continuo. Abbiamo sviluppato un algorit...
pp. 641-642 (Riunione Intermedia della Società Italiana di Statistica "Rischio e previsione", Venezia, 6-8/06/2007), 978-88-6129-093-8
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2007, Conference posters
Nonstationary Markov processes in phase transition modelling
Rotondi R., Varini E.
The geophysical and geological features of a seismic region determine the succession of the earthquake occurrences; we assume that their temporal variations produce state changes in the physical syste...
(5th International Workshop on: Statistical Seismology: Physical and Stochastic Modelling of Earthquake Occurrence and Forecasting, Erice (PA), 31 May - 6 June, 2007)
CNR@People

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2007, Conference proceedings
Particle filtering for continuous-time hidden Markov models
Chopin N., Varini E.
We consider continuous-time models where the observed process depends on an unobserved jump Markov Process. We develop a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm which makes it possible to filter and smooth t...
pp. 12-17 (19), EDP Sciences (Workshop on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods: filtering and other applications, Oxford (UK), 3-5/7/2006)
CNR@People | DOI: 10.1051/proc:071903

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2006, Meeting abstracts
Modelli di rilascio di sforzo e aree sismogenetiche
Rotondi R. e Varini E.
In questo lavoro presentiamo i risultati relativi ad un'analisi bayesiana di modelli di rilascio di sforzo applicati alla zona dell'Italia meridionale corrispondente al Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia.
Atti del 25° Convegno del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida (GNGTS). pp. 356-357 (XXV Convegno Nazionale del Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida, Roma, 28-30/11/2006), 88-902101-1-7
CNR@People

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2006, Conference proceedings
Particle filtering of a state-space model for seismic sequences
Chopin N., Varini E.
N/A
(4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology)
CNR@People

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2006, Conference communications
Reconciling short- and long-term seismic modelling
Rotondi R. e Varini E.
N/A
(International School of Geophysics, 26th Workshop on Earthquake and Shaking Probabilities: Helping Society to Make the Right Choice, Erice)
CNR@People

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2005, Conference proceedings
Stochastic simulation of point process models for forecasting seismic events
Rotondi R., Varini E.
N/A
(Convegno S.Co.2005: ?Modelli Complessi e Metodi Computazionali Intensivi per la Stima e la Previsione?, Bressanone)
CNR@People

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2004, Conference proceedings
Valutazione della pericolosità sismica nella regione Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia attraverso modelli di rilascio di sforzo
Rotondi R., Varini E.
Discutiamo in questo articolo l'applicazione di alcuni modelli di rilascio disforzo - stress release - alla sequenza di forti terremoti registrati in una regione sismogenetica dell'Italia meridionale....
Atti 11° Convegno Nazionale dell'ANIDIS. "L'Ingegneria Sismica in Italia" pp.tot 8 (XI Convegno Nazionale dell'Associazione Nazionale Italiana di Ingegneria Sismica (ANIDIS), Genova, 25-29/01/2004), 88-86281-89-7
CNR@People

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2014, Research report
Task B - Probabilistic analysis of macroseismic data to forecast damage scenarios
R. Rotondi, C. Brambilla, E. Varini, and G. Zonno
N/A

CNR@People | Link

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2013, Technical report
Strain-, moment- and energy-based self-correcting models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Italy.
E. Varini, R. Rotondi, R. Basili, S. Barba, and B. Betrò
This study presents a series of self-correcting models that were obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed...
pp.tot 46
CNR@People

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2011, Research report
Impatto dei cambiamenti climatici sulle produzioni agricole: strategie di adattamento ai processi di desertificazione nelle aree mediterranee (CYCAS-MED). Report finale - Parte A.
A. Bodini, C. Cesaraccio, M. Dubrovsky, P. Duce, E. Varini, and P. Zara
N/A

CNR@People

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2023, Multimedia product
Statistica bayesiana per lo studio di sequenze di terremoti
E. Varini
Presentazione nell'ambito del convegno La Statistica al CNR al Servizio del Paese - Edizione del Centenario.Abstract della presentazione:La sismologia moderna nasce a metà del XIX secolo nella ...

CNR@People | Link

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2014, Multimedia product
Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources
R. Nave, F. Sansivero, G. Zonno (DVD contents revision and structuring), and Partners of UPStrat-MAFA Project
This CD-Rom is a dissemination product of the EU project "Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources" (UPStrat-MAFA); it summarizes the main results obt...

CNR@People

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